How to pick a Grand National Winner - the Free Bet Bookmaker Guide

I'm going to go back as far as 1990 to prove a point about the Grand National, so bear with me. In the following table, you have a list of all the past winners, with their age, odds and their weight:

Only one horse has beaten the handicapper, winning with a weight of more than 10-12, and that was the exceptional Hedgehunter, who simply mauled the field, and was a deserved favourite. There are only two eight-year-olds in this list, and only two twelve-year-olds, so this tells us that 14 times in 18 races, the winner has been 9, 10 or 11 years old. However, an 11-year-old has not won this race since 2001, and that was something of a freak race if you remember, with conditions proving so difficult that only a handful of horses won.

So, given the right conditions, we're looking at a 9 or a 10 year old, with an outside chance of an 8 or an 11-year-old popping up to win.

We're also looking at a horse with no more than 10-12 on its back. Already, the field is shortening.

Notice another thing? Only two favourites have won in the last 18 years, and one was a joint favourite. So, the bookies don't always get it right, but the handicapper does. In the next few articles here on Free Bet Bookmaker, I'll be looking at this year's field, shortening it down for you, and hopefully pointing you in the right direction.

In the meantime, if you need to open a bookmaker's account, we recommend the bet 10 get 20 free bet from Paddy Power.

published: 28th March 2009 by Free Bet Bookmaker

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