The Grand National: Free Bet Bookmaker’s Preview - Butler’s Cabin for McCoy?

Once a year, everyone gets to bet. It's a national institution, and everyone has an opinion. Some people call it a lottery, but as we've seen this week, it's anything but. While the criteria are nowhere near as tight as with the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris, they are clear and provide us with enough pointers to draw up a shortlist of five to ten horses that have a chance.

From that shortlist, we can apply our own criteria and bring our shortlist down to a winner and a few each-way bets. And even if you don't believe it to be a great horse race, it's a great opportunity for the analyst to get his teeth into one of the most absorbing lists of runners and riders in the racing calendar.

First off, I think that Tony McCoy has a fantastic chance of making it 13th time lucky on Butler's Cabin. He's carrying under 11st, and Butler's Cabin has experience of the Aintree fences, even if he did fall last year. He'll appreciate the going, so everything is pointing to this horse who is currently 8/1 with the bookies and might go at even shorter odds. Of the other favourites, Rambling Minster certainly catches the eye as regards form, and will give a good account of himself. My Will is probably being backed excessively, especially with the number of people called Will who are backing it for emotional reasons, or the fact that Ruby Walsh is riding him. But Ruby does not win the National every year, and neither do horses with more than 11 stone on their back. This is too much for any horse.

The same goes for Black Apalachi who has been mentioned aplenty because of his win over National fences in November. Different times, different weight, different field. He'll find it tough now the handicapper has got him.

Parson's Legacy has caught the eye, specifically because he likes good ground. There's a lot in his favour and the odds have been falling all week - you might get 16/1 right now, but 12/1 SP is more likely. I went each way at 20/1. He is ranked alongside Southern Vic, an erratic but interesting type who will also appreciate the going, and it will be a surprise if he wins the National, but not a massive one. Brooklyn Brownie is one horse who loves good ground, and an encouraging second at Aintree in November will have encouraged many to back him each way. He suits this race, and he suits this ground.

Further down the list, there are some horses that deserve a little more respect than they have been given. Cornish Sett got round last year and there were questions over his stamina, but he's a progressive type who has what it takes to get into the places, and at 33/1, he's great value. Himalayan Trail is one whose connections have been quietly confident about. There's less to shout about than with Cornish Sett, but his trainer knows what it takes to bring through a National winner. Long odds make for great value once more. Idle Talk is one at even longer odds that has caught our eye with some interesting Aintree performances. On his day, he can really be a contender - but he doesn't have many days, so he has to be taken on faith.

Mon Mome falls within the weights, and has an outside chance of causing the favourites problems. He was well beaten here last year, so that chance remains just that - an outside one. Golden Flight is a strange one - a horse that has mastered Auteuil in Paris to such an extent that he has won something like £500k over his career. However, that last run at Cheltenham showed him as out of sorts on a return from injury - if you're looking for an outsider, though - this one might go well, as he does have talent in reserve.

So - it's not my job to tell you who will win the National, but to point you in the direction of a horse that might. While the history of the race shows that much of it goes according to plan, there's still a huge amount of chance involved - remember how Clan Royal looked to be going so well before being pushed out before a fence by a horse who had unseated his jockey? I always saw Clan Royal as a National winner - and that could - probably should - have been his year. So my advice is that you should play for the averages - look for horses that like the going, like the trip, and are not weighed down too much.

Weight is holding back the likes of Comply or Die, Black Apalachi, and I would add My Will to that list. Hear The Echo, Cloudy Lane and Snowy Morning are also on the heavy list, so we have to look further down, and it's Butler's Cabin, Rambling Minster and Parson's Legacy who get the nod, with Darkness as an outside chance to win. Cornish Sett, Himalayan Trail and Brooklyn Brownie are my three each-way picks. Go back through the FBB site and look at the past winners, and make your own judgement - but most of all, if you're only betting one day this year - bloody enjoy it. And go on Tony McCoy.

published: 4th April 2009 by Free Bet Bookmaker

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