The Grand National Guide Part 2 - applying the rules

Let's apply the rules that we learnt from looking at the history of the race and add a few more, shall we? This gives us a list of horses that fit the overall picture of the history of the race. Assuming that we have followed the previous guide, and that nothing untowards happens at Aintree next week, the winner of the Grand National should come from this list...

Those rules are: most winners are 9,10 or 11 years old, bar 3 (2 eight-year-olds and a 12-year old), and most (in fact, all but one) of the last 18 winners have been bracketed in the 10-xx weights. So, for the sake of consistency, we have gone with the overall average and eliminated them. However, we'll come back to those who might "break the rules" a little later. Already among this list, we see quite a few of the favourites, and some very familiar names. The bookie's already ahead of us, and we've not even done half the work yet.

What I now want to know is: have any of these horses gone round Aintree before? If not, I'm inclined to mark them down. If so, I'll mark them up. Have any of them gone round the Grand National course at Aintree before? Again, mark up if so, mark down if not. Mark down again if that horse has fallen or upseated its rider at Aintree. Also mark the horse down if it is French. That's not a xenophobic statement, just a statement of fact - French horses don't win the National.

Remember, this is a very specific race - experience counts as much in a horse as it does in a jockey. Animals are creatures of habit - familiarity helps.

So, what does that leave us with?

Following this logic - we've got three horses that have good records at Aintree, and have finished the Grand National course. Of course, it doesn't always work like that, so over the week I'll be taking a closer look at the horses involved - and we'll have a better idea of who is going to win when the cut is made. But for now, keep a close eye on Idle Talk and Cornish Sett - the news is that King John's Castle (last year's second-place) is unlikely to run. As these horses have lesser pedigree compared to others in the list, there are bound to be other factors that will decide the winner of this year's race. Come back later this week and I'll analyse it further. In the meantime, good luck with your own research!

published: 28th March 2009 by Free Bet Bookmaker

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