Epsom Derby Trends: How to pick a winner

Derby trends

  • 10/10 Derby winners ran at over 7 furlongs as a 2-year-old
  • 10/10 came either 1st or 2nd in their previous race
  • 10/10 won with odds of 7/1 or less
  • 10/10 made their debut at a Group 1 racecourse
  • 9/10 were rated 119+
  • 9/10 had at least 3 career races
  • 9/10 had at most 7 career races
  • 8/10 had at least 2 juvenile races
  • 8/10 won their previous race
  • 6/10 won over at least 1m2f as a 3-year-old
  • 5/10 trained in Ireland
  • 3/10 won the Dante at York in their previous race

So, what does this mean for you, the punter? Well, it looks pretty clear that the favourite, Carlton House, is going to mount a pretty serious challenge. 3 races, a Dante winner at 1m2f, 2 juvenile races, good rating - all the trends point to Carlton House. In fact, as the Queen's enjoying a Pretty Good Year so far, you'd have to say everything's going her way. She owns the horse, by the way, if you didn't know.

The challengers look, well, a bit of a mixed bag. Pour Moi is a strange one - brought over from France by Andre Fabre for the Derby instead of the Prix du Jockey Club - he's a promising horse who has the Prix de l'Arc as his long-term aim. He is possibly the better of two Montjeu colts in this race - the other being Recital. Both are a little quirky - Recital perhaps more so - but that's only to be expected from sires of Montjeu, it's in the blood. So, for Fabre to take Pour Moi over here instead of Chantilly is interesting, and Pour Moi is worthy of extra inspection. Recital's followers will be slightly worried about his stamina.

So, it's back to Betty Windsor, and Carlton House. Not the nation's number one choice, I suppose, but Frankel's been taken elsewhere, as has Roderic O'Connor, which means it should continue to be a good year for the monarch.

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published: 30th May 2011 by Free Bet Bookmaker


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