Football, Betting, and ‘Black Swans’

This Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a chatty little guy - I saw him on Newsnight being told to calm down and put his sentences into the correct order by some irate woman (Paxman would have killed him), but I started reading his book and I'm wondering how he's going to fill the next 150 pages, seeing as he's already spent 150 pages saying "things are kinda random".

He's not wrong, though, ol' Taleb. West Ham came away from Stamford Bridge with a point, Hull went 2-0 up at Anfield and came out of it with a point, and Hoffenheim lead the Bundesliga in Germany - that's as if somebody has been playing Football Manager for several months and finally managed to get Lancaster City up to the top of the Premiership (I did that while working in France, incidentally... those 35 heures just flew by).

Football is uniquely random - and many gamblers are put off by week after week of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls the 'Black Swan' - i.e. something totally random happening that you could not possibly have foreseen. How many times have you come a cropper due to something as random as a goal from Phil Neville or Utd drawing at home to some nobodies? So much 'common sense' has to go out of the window - and we're only wise after the event. It's easy to say that West Ham deserved their draw at Stamford Bridge, but 9 people out of 10 would have predicted a safe Chelsea win. They will now be looking back on it, saying "well, they're not a bad side after all, those Hammers."

Myself, I rarely bet on football, but if I do, I try not to look too much at form - I try to look at trends and conditions.

For instance, Tottenham vs Everton a few weeks ago. Many predicted a Spurs win that day, especially with Everton having such an up and down season and Spurs' revival continuing apace under Harry Redknapp. However, Everton had won there the last two seasons, combined with the Blues' away form AND the fact that they've suddenly started to win games in London (which they never used to), they were worth a punt.

Hull yesterday - and this is not just a case of being wise after the event - I did lay Liverpool before the game - is another case in point. Liverpool might be top of the league, and therefore on form, but they struggle against sides like Stoke, Fulham and Hull - i.e. they struggle against sides who like to get stuck in. Hull not only got stuck in, but they went at Liverpool as they have done against so many of the top sides. They play as if they just don't care. So Hull's relatively poor form goes out of the window in this case and you start to look at the trend of 'fancy Spanish side' Liverpool and how they match up against 'dogged English sides' like Hull. And vice versa.

You can also be guaranteed that form will eventually be reversed. Just like the pound against the euro - it will never be in a terminally downward spiral. Or so we hope. Blackburn is one side that gamblers should be watching very carefully. Right now, Paul Ince looks a bit dim, but if they hold on to him and get a few results, he'll start to look quite the clever chappy. I'm going to be watching their game against Stoke next weekend with an eye on the Blackburn win. You're bound to find some decent odds against Blackburn. Like in finance when you buy at the bottom, you will find many people suddenly 'buying' Blackburn.

As always, though, you can find sides like West Brom who are almost always going to lose away from home (I said at the start of the season that they were at least one striker down), and pick off the winnings, no matter how small. But football's more complicated than that - and Nassim Nicholas Taleb will tell you that there's a 'Black Swan' just around the corner. My advice - back up your bets with some serious studying of trends and you'll see your winnings grow.

Back it up with one of the following free bets, too:

Free £20 bet: Paddy Power (£10 deposit)

Free £15 bet: 888.com

Free £25 bet: Jaxx

published: 15th December 2008 by Free Bet Bookmaker

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