Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe - the Free Bet Bookmaker preview

If you're new to FBB, then bear with me and I'm sorry for the gloating. I love the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe partly because a) I used to live in Paris and went there 10 years in a row and b) I used to win most of the time. How did I win most of the time? Well, it's because I followed a simple formula that has been broken the last two years, and that I have been willing to break just once. I may, just may, be willing to break it again, depending on the ground.

Let's get to that when we get to that.

This year, there is a big chance that Sea The Stars will run (and win) the Prix de l'Arc. This, without a doubt, is the greatest horse of his generation and of many generations before him. He ranks alongside Galileo and Hurricane Run (my previous favourite horse), and doesn't even break into a sweat when he streaks away from the opposition. Put simply, he's a winner and nobody can stop him, especially in this relatively weak Arc field.

So, if Sea The Stars runs, I will break the following rule that works 8/10 times:

- French-trained 3-year-old male
- Preferably connected with Andre Fabre
- At most 6 or 7 races in the year
- Has won all of them
- Won the Prix Niel in September
- Did not win the English Derby

It takes an exceptional horse to break the rule - Zarkava did just that last year (the filly), and Dylan Thomas fluked it the year before because there was no viable French alternative. This year, there is - and if Sea The Stars does not run, then you have Cavalryman, who fits the bill perfectly, and Beheshtam, whose star waned and is now waxing as a result of a valiant second in the Prix Niel.

Cavalryman is an Andre Fabre horse, is a 3-year old male, has the Prix Niel and the Grand Prix de Paris in his back pocket, and is unbeaten. Longchamp, and the distance of the Arc, will prove no problem - in fact, he will probably chase home Sea The Stars quite well. I even have nightmares of Sea The Stars treading water on that long, long home straight at Longchamp, with Cavalryman charging through - but those are just nightmares. If Sea The Stars does not run, then this will be my top 3:

1 - Cavalryman
2 - Vision d'Etat
3 - Beheshtam

If Sea The Stars does run, then just push them all down by one. This is an exceptional race, run in exceptional conditions, with exceptional horses. Keep your eye on the ground, keep your ear to the ground, and put your money on one or the other, depending on which way John Oxx's decision goes.

published: 16th September 2009 by Free Bet Bookmaker

Comments

Something to say about this article? Post your comments below!