The Prix de l’Arc - take Zarkava and Vision d’Etat ahead of Duke of Marmalade

var uri = 'http://impgb.tradedoubler.com/imp?type(img)g(17535418)a(1511557)' + new String (Math.random()).substring (2, 11); document.write('');

All of this leads me to think that Duke of Marmalade is a somewhat overrated bet - and past betting on the Prix de l'Arc has proved that British-trained horses are vastly overrated. The biggest mover in the market so far, Duke of Marmalade is now as short as 3/1 in places, with Zarkava remaining the favourite - just.

Zarkava is still unbeaten, as is Vision d'Etat - but it is the impressive way in which Zarkava handled the Prix Vermeille earlier on this month, that opened wallets both in France and in the UK. So why does Zarkava go against the grain?

Because she is a filly. And fillies don't often have much luck at the Arc. Let's go over the form (once more) shall we?

Arc winners are usually:

- French trained

- Three year olds

- The winner of the Prix Niel, a few weeks previously

- Previous winners at Longchamp (before the Prix Niel)

- and finally - NOT fillies.

Ah, but Zarkava is special - so perhaps this is an exception. She'll be up against the big boys for the first time, and going up against French Derby winner Vision d'Etat - who is also coincidentally, the winner of the Prix Niel. Did I mention that Vision d'Etat is a he? And that he is French-trained and 3-years old.

Perfect fit. Well, you'd have thought so - but it appears that the headlines - and a bit of patriotic betting - have stolen the day. This is where the clever gambler can get the right odds - because people will eventually work out that Vision d'Etat is a little long simply because of his background. Trained by Eric Libaud, who trains about 60 horses in the Sarthe region - an impoverished area near Le Mans - Vision d'Etat will be paired up with Eric Mendizabal, a jockey who remains relatively unknown to Brits.

And that's why Duke of Marmalade is streaking up the betting. The Arc is the domain of French-trained horses, and Dylan Thomas's win there last year was simply because the only French 3-year-old capable of challenging, Zambezi Sun, just wasn't good enough. This year, there's Zarkava and Vision d'Etat, and it will come down to those two in my opinion.

The other horses worthy of mention are Soldier of Fortune, who has clearly been laid out for this race after an impressive showing last year, and Youmzain, who has two 2nd-place finishes in this race. Both like Longchamp, and both are excellent each-way bets. However, it's going to come down to Zarkava and Vision d'Etat for me, and I'm going to back form and history and say that the 9/1 shot is the best value you're going to find. You can get it - and a double-your-money free bet on the Arc (i.e. bet £10 get £20) from Paddy Power. Bet £10 get £20 here.

published: 28th September 2008 by Free Bet Bookmaker

Comments

Something to say about this article? Post your comments below!